The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its Thanksgiving 2025 weather forecast—and this year promises one of the most regionally diverse holidays in recent memory. While some Americans may wake up to snow-dusted rooftops and frosty air, others will carve their turkeys under warm sunshine. With millions expected to travel between November 23 and 30, 2025, the forecast underscores how varying weather conditions could shape everything from travel plans to family gatherings.
Old Farmer’s Almanac Thanksgiving 2025 Forecast
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s long-range outlook, this Thanksgiving will draw a distinct line across the United States. The West Coast, Pacific Northwest, and Northeast will experience colder and wetter weather, possibly bringing rain or even early snow. Meanwhile, the South and Southeast should see mild, comfortable days perfect for travel and outdoor celebrations.
This pattern signals a classic late-autumn divide—a mix of wintry chill up north and springlike sunshine down south. The Almanac calls it a “patchwork Thanksgiving,” one that highlights the shifting climate zones that define modern holiday weather.
| Region | Expected Conditions (Nov 23–30, 2025) | Travel Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Northeast | Cold, windy, snow possible in higher elevations | Moderate – possible flight delays |
| Midwest | Cool with light rain or isolated flurries | Mixed – possible slick roads |
| West & Rockies | Wet and cold with mountain snow | Caution – slower road travel |
| South & Southeast | Mild, sunny, mostly dry | Excellent – ideal for travel |
| Southwest | Warm days, cool nights | Excellent – optimal for road trips |
The Chilly North: Classic Thanksgiving Vibes
For the Northeast and northern Midwest, Thanksgiving 2025 is shaping up to feel traditional—cold, crisp, and potentially snowy in spots. Temperatures across New England, upstate New York, and the Great Lakes region will hover near the mid-30s to low-40s°F during the day, with overnight freezes likely.
Areas near the Adirondacks, northern Pennsylvania, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula could see snow flurries, making for postcard-perfect holiday scenes but also potential travel slowdowns on major routes like I-90 and I-95. Windchills may dip into the 20s, so travelers planning to attend parades or outdoor events should bundle up.
In the Midwest, conditions look variable—expect a mix of highs in the 40s with scattered rain or light snow from Minneapolis to Chicago. The Almanac suggests motorists prepare for slippery roads and shifting weather systems, especially late in the week.
Where Sunshine Steals the Show: The Southern and Southwestern States?
If you prefer sunshine with your stuffing, the South and Southwest will deliver. The Old Farmer’s Almanac anticipates one of the warmest Thanksgiving periods in recent years across the southern tier of the nation.
The Southwest, including Arizona, southern Nevada, parts of New Mexico, and West Texas, stands out as the holiday’s bright spot. Expect comfortable afternoons between 65°F and 75°F and cool, dry evenings ideal for outdoor dining or travel. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center supports the Almanac’s outlook, forecasting above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation through late November.
| Subregion | Temperature Range | Conditions | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern California & Arizona | 65–75°F days, 45°F nights | Sunny and dry | Perfect for holiday road trips |
| New Mexico | 60–70°F days, 40°F nights | Clear and breezy | Light jacket recommended |
| West Texas | 65°F days, 50°F nights | Mostly sunny | Little to no rain expected |
| Southern Nevada | 60–70°F days | Calm and clear | Ideal for outdoor gatherings |
Further east, the Southeast—including Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas—will see a warm and dry Thanksgiving, with afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s°F. Atlanta’s forecast calls for comfortable parades, while Orlando and Miami could see holiday highs well above average.
Travel Impacts: Timing Matters More Than Ever
Thanksgiving week is one of America’s busiest travel periods, with nearly 55 million travelers expected to take to the roads and skies, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation. This year, weather will play a significant role in determining travel comfort.
- Flyers heading through northern airports such as Chicago, Boston, or Seattle should aim for early departures before possible weekend storm systems emerge.
- Drivers in mountain regions like the Rockies or Sierra Nevada should check for weather alerts as snow and icy roads could disrupt interstate routes.
- Southern routes, including I-10, I-20, and I-40 through states like Texas and Arizona, will see smooth conditions ideal for long drives.
The major takeaway: travelers moving north to south may encounter dramatic temperature swings, from icy mornings to sunlit afternoons.
Will It Snow on Thanksgiving Day?
Some snow is expected—but mostly in high elevations and northern regions. The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts light flurries in parts of the Rockies, northern Great Lakes, and interior New England. These snowfalls are likely to be light and scenic rather than disruptive.
For most major cities—including New York, Boston, and Denver—the outlook favors cold but relatively dry weather. Mountain towns like Aspen, Burlington, and Marquette could see early-season snow showers, signaling the unofficial start of winter sports season.
Meanwhile, across the southern half of the country, conditions will stay frost-free. From Florida to southern California, Thanksgiving Day should bring sunny skies, making backyard dinners and holiday parades especially inviting.
The Science Behind the Almanac
Founded in 1792, the Old Farmer’s Almanac remains a cherished staple of American forecasting culture. Its long-range predictions are based on a blend of solar cycles, historical weather patterns, and climatological data. The publication claims roughly 80% accuracy, though meteorologists advise reading such forecasts as directional guides rather than precise predictions.
This year’s forecast aligns broadly with climate models from the NOAA, which predict a continued influence from neutral to weak El Niño conditions through late 2025, leading to warmer, drier trends in the southern U.S. and cooler, wetter conditions across northern regions.
What This Means for Holiday Plans?
In essence, Thanksgiving 2025 will embody what makes America’s geography so unique: a patchwork holiday where every region writes its own weather story. For some, it’s shaping up to be a fireside holiday filled with snowflakes; for others, it’s an opportunity to host family lunches outdoors under blue skies.
Those heading north should pack winter gear and prepare for potential travel delays, while southern travelers can look forward to clear roads and moderate temperatures.
Whether you spend Thanksgiving watching snowflakes drift past the window or enjoying sunshine on the patio, this year’s forecast is a reminder to plan early, stay flexible, and embrace the diversity of a holiday that feels as varied—and beautiful—as the country itself.
FAQs
What is the main idea of the Thanksgiving 2025 forecast?
The US will be split. The North expects cold, possibly snowy weather, while the South and Southwest will be mild, sunny, and great for travel.
Which US regions should prepare for the coldest weather?
The US will be split. The North expects cold, possibly snowy weather, while the South and Southwest will be mild, sunny, and great for travel.
Which areas will have the best weather for outdoor activities?
The South and Southwest, including Arizona and Florida, will be warm and dry, with sunny afternoons perfect for road trips and outdoor gatherings.
Will there be snow for most major cities on Thanksgiving Day?
No. Snow is mainly limited to high mountains and far northern regions. Most major US cities are forecast to be cold but relatively dry
What is the most important travel tip for this holiday week?
Travelers should plan early and stay flexible. Those heading north should expect delays from rain/snow, while southern routes look clear and easy.