Thanksgiving First Snowfall Forecast by Old Farmer’s Almanac – Here’s All You Need to Know!

As the chill of fall turns to the crisp air of winter, many Americans are looking ahead to what the weather will hold for the Thanksgiving holiday. The Old Farmer’s Almanac, a trusted source for long-range weather predictions, has released its Thanksgiving 2025 forecast along with early winter predictions, offering travellers and homeowners a glimpse of what they can expect for this festive time of year.

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While the Almanac suggests an overall warmer-than-average fall for most of the country, it also predicts cooler-than-average temperatures and dry conditions for regions like Pennsylvania, the Appalachians, and the Lower Lakes. But what about snowfall? For many, the first snow of the season is a hallmark of Thanksgiving, and this year, the Almanac has some interesting predictions.

Thanksgiving First Snowfall Forecast by Old Farmer’s Almanac

While the Northeast may have already seen early snowfall in parts of Vermont and Maine, including snow as early as late September, the timing of the first measurable snowfall varies widely by location. In Pennsylvania, for example, cities like Erie have already recorded snow as early as the first week of October, with other parts of the state experiencing first snowfalls later in the season.

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Here’s a breakdown of the average first snowfall dates for select cities:

City	Average First Snowfall Date
Erie, PA	November 9
Pittsburgh, PA	November 16
Allentown, PA	December 6
Kennedy Airport, NY	December 9
Newark, NJ	December 9
Wilmington, DE	December 17
Philadelphia, PA	December 19

With Thanksgiving 2025 falling on Thursday, November 27, and nearly 89 percent of holiday travelers expected to drive, according to AAA, snow or rain delays could affect those traveling across these regions. But the Old Farmer’s Almanac suggests that, while some northern areas might see light snow, the weather should remain relatively pleasant for most travelers.

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The Old Farmer’s Almanac Thanksgiving 2025 Forecast

According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s Thanksgiving 2025 forecast, sunshine is expected to dominate much of the East, while the West will likely experience rainy conditions. Snowfall is expected only in a few northern areas, including New England and the Upper Midwest.

For the Northeast, including much of Pennsylvania, the Almanac predicts colder-than-average temperatures accompanied by sunny skies. Light snow could move through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley just before Thanksgiving Day, which might bring a dusting or a quick accumulation in some areas. However, rain and snow delays are not expected to be major issues.

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Neighboring states like New Jersey, Delaware, and the Atlantic Corridor will also experience cooler temperatures, but conditions should remain clear with no significant precipitation.

Dr. Andrew Smith, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, comments, “While the Old Farmer’s Almanac has a long history of forecasting, it’s important to remember that weather is inherently variable. Their predictions should be used as a general guide rather than a precise forecast. For real-time and more specific weather information, always turn to local meteorological services.”

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In summary, Thanksgiving Day will likely bring pleasant travel conditions, with most regions experiencing chilly weather but no major disruptions from rain or snow.

The 2025–2026 Winter Weather Forecast

Looking beyond Thanksgiving, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has also released its long-range winter forecast, which describes the upcoming season as “mostly mild—with pockets of wild.” In Pennsylvania, the Almanac predicts colder-than-usual temperatures with a “split snow story”—lighter snowfall in the northern part of the state, and heavier totals in the southern regions.

Key Forecast Points:

• Below-normal temperatures are expected, especially during mid- and late December, early and late January, and early February.
• Snowfall and precipitation are expected to be below normal, with the most significant snowstorms arriving in late December, late January, early and late February, and mid-March.

For Pennsylvania, while the winter season is expected to see less snow than usual, the Pittsburgh area may receive slightly higher snowfall totals compared to other regions of the state.

How Much Snow Will Pennsylvania Get?

The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts below-normal snowfall across much of Pennsylvania during the 2025–2026 winter season. However, certain areas, particularly the Pittsburgh region, may experience slightly higher-than-average snowfalls.

Here’s an average snowfall breakdown for select regions:

Region	Average Snowfall
Philadelphia	18–24 inches
Poconos	36–42 inches
Snowbelt near Erie	110–140 inches

For comparison, the National Weather Service’s 2024–2025 data shows snowfall totals like 109.9 inches in Erie, 30.4 inches in Pittsburgh, and 8.1 inches in Philadelphia.

When is the Winter Solstice in 2025?

The winter solstice, marking the official start of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, will occur on Sunday, December 21, 2025, at 10:03 a.m. Eastern Time. This will be the shortest day of the year, after which the days will gradually begin to lengthen again.

How Accurate Is The Old Farmer’s Almanac?

The Old Farmer’s Almanac is known for its long-range weather predictions, which it claims are about 80 percent accurate. While the Almanac’s weather predictions are widely respected, it acknowledges that variations can occur due to abnormal weather patterns or shifts in atmospheric conditions.

The Almanac itself notes that its predictions are best used as general guidance for seasonal planning, and it advises against relying solely on its forecasts for day-to-day weather decisions. For more specific and accurate weather information, the National Weather Service is always the best source.

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